Examining Conclusions

In the years since the Great Migration historians have come to a variety of conclusions about this mass exodus from the South - conclusions that can be tested in many cases by examining related census data in My World. Consider the following propositions:

• A greater percentage of males than females migrated

• The exodus included a disproportionately larger segment of the literate/skilled black population.

• The migration North tended to come more from southern urban centers rather than from rural areas.

You are going to examine these conclusions focusing on a single southern city and the surrounding counties as suggested in the following example and questions.-

An Example to Get You Started -

A recent book by Carole Marks provides the most detailed history of the Great Migration. In her conclusion she writes:

"... certain types of migrants leave in fairly predictable patterns. Young literate men, possessing some formal education and previous manufacturing experience are among those most likely to move. They are not alone. For those who are married, women play a direct and necessary role, sustaining their families while their husbands search for work and continuing to supplement meager salaries once they are resettled. 1

Among other things, Marks is suggesting that more males migrated than females; that young men, single as well as married, were among the first to migrate, hoping to settle into a job and place to live before they brought their families North. Let's see if the data you have available from across three decades supports this conclusion.

If Marks is right we should be able to see a difference in the relative percentage of African American men and women in the southern population from 1900 to 1930. We are going to start by looking specifically at the counties surrounding Atlanta, Georgia.

First, we need to think about ways in which we can explore the data to test this conclusion. The available census information is listed in the Examining Conclusions worksheet. We could:

• look at the percentage of black men and women in the population in 1900 and then again in 1930 and see how they changed over time, or
• examine the ratio of black females to males in each of these years.
The following data maps and tables put together using data from the The Great Migration project file show the female to male ratio in the various counties surrounding Atlanta in 1900 and 1930. Note that you will need to add a new field to the Atlanta Area 1900 and Atlanta Area 1930 layers containing the ratio you want to examine. Otherwise you will be using the same data analysis techniques introduced in the Demographics activities.

My World
ArcGIS

• Click on the Analyze tab, select to Add Field(s) By Math Operation, and complete the form as follows:

• Click OK.

 • Right click the Atlanta Area 1900 layer and select Open Attribute Table.

• Click the Options button and select to Add Field.

• Complete the Add Field dialogue as indicated below:

• Click OK.

• Right click the FEMTOMALE category heading and select Field Calculator:

• Double click on the field names to define the calculation as pictured below:

• Click OK.


It is helpful in looking for patterns in the numbers to sort the data on the particular variable you are examining - in this case the FEMTOMALE values:

My World
ArcGIS
• Select the Atlanta Area 1900 layer in the table of contents

• Click on the table icon ( ) to open the attribute table.

• Click the FEMTOMALE category heading to set the sort order:

 • Right click the Atlanta Area 1900 layer and select Open Attribute Table.

• Right click the FEMTOMALE category heading and select Sort Ascending or Sort Descending:


Clearly, in the Atlanta region and the surrounding counties the results support Mark’s conclusion. There is a definite shift towards more black females. Many black males left the Atlanta area. Is the same true in other parts of the south? Your turn. Prepare similar maps and tables from the available data for the counties surrounding another southern city.

Compare your work side-by-side with the maps and tables above.

To Start You Thinking -

1) What does it mean in terms of the migration if the ratio of females to males increases? decreases?

2) What general pattern do you see in the maps and tables for the Atlanta area? Are there exceptions?

3) Describe any differences or similarities in the area that you examined.

4) Check the work of your classmates. Does there seem to be a general pattern?

5) Based on the evidence you see is Marks' conclusion about the number of males migrating versus the number of females correct? Explain.

1Carole Marks, Farewell, We're Good and Gone: The Great Black Migration, (Bloomington, Indiana: University Press, 1989), p 167.

Last modified in July, 2008 by Rick Thomas